Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf55…c966 crypto 369 markets active 9h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$44 (-3%) realized −$46 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate49%175W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$11
14 days+$22
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$23
crypto 31% −$27
other 18% −$21
politics 8% −$8
sports 5% −$14
tech 2% −$20
economics 1% −$3
weather 0% −$3
finance 0% +$8
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +17.7% +6.5% 59% 50% -0.9%
≤30d 84 +0.5% -9.0% 60% 39% -3.9%
≤90d 139 -0.6% -10.1% 60% 32% -7.6%
all 357 -9.5% -18.1% 49% 33% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 33% -14.8%
10% -25.9% 29% -22.9%
15% -33.1% 23% -30.4%
20% -39.7% 18% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses175 / 182
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)357 / 369
History coverage125d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $8 $12 +$3 (+37%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 18¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 33¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? Yes 21¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$3 +37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +180%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -78%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $18 −$3 -19%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $17 +$5 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $11 +$2 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +269%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 +50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -22%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -33%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $13 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $24 $0 +1%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $2 9h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $2 9h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $2 9h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 9h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $1 9h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $2 9h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $2 9h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $2 9h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 9h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 9h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $2 10h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $2 11h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 12h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $11 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $13 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $2 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $2 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.56 · official $51.56 (match) · 2153 history records