Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:26:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BF 0xbf57…93ad other 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate22%17W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$15
politics 13% −$7
other 9% −$31
sports 3% +$5
economics 1% $0
world 1% +$15
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -6.7% -15.6% 20% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 54 -6.6% -15.5% 19% 11% -11.2%
all 78 -4.4% -13.5% 22% 14% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 14% -9.7%
10% -21.8% 14% -18.3%
15% -29.4% 13% -26.2%
20% -36.3% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses17 / 61
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage607d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $17 $0 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $94 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $95 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $93 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 05 $55 $0 +1%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $18 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $13 +$5 +44%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 18 $78 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $88 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $7 +$12 +165%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $78 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $82 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $79 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $73 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $156 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $79 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $74 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $82 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $78 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $78 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $81 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $76 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $80 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $8 +$7 +86%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $7 +$6 +89%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $10 +$2 +24%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 3h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 29h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $5 30h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 6d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 7d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 8d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $10 9d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 13d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $41 13d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 20d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 20d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 21d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 21d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $17 22d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $17 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 29d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 31d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $17 31d
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 31d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 31d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.68 · official $51.68 (match) · 291 history records