Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf5c…e3cd crypto 115 markets active 4d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (232 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-5%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate48%55W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day232.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$17
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (232 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 +3.7% -6.2% 48% 37% -17.5%
≤30d 115 +3.7% -6.2% 48% 37% -17.5%
≤90d 115 +3.7% -6.2% 48% 37% -17.5%
all 115 +3.7% -6.2% 48% 37% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover232.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 37% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 23% -25.4%
15% -23.4% 14% -32.6%
20% -30.9% 7% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses55 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)115 / 115
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day232.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 115 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 277 history records