Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf5f…30ed sports 272 markets active 7h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$172 (-3%) realized −$172 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate64%175W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$152
7 days−$48
14 days−$208
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$109
other 26% −$118
weather 1% +$13
world 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 188 +1.3% -8.4% 68% 52% -10.9%
≤30d 272 -2.2% -11.5% 64% 51% -13.4%
≤90d 272 -2.2% -11.5% 64% 51% -13.4%
all 272 -2.2% -11.5% 64% 51% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 51% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 40% -21.7%
15% -27.7% 26% -29.2%
20% -34.8% 19% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses175 / 97
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)272 / 272
History coverage11d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 272 Trades
no open positions (78 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $24 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $25 +$4 +16%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $25 +$2 +7%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $25 +$3 +13%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $15 +$11 +76%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $5 +$1 +13%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu Jun 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $15 −$9 -57%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $5 +$1 +18%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $5 +$2 +35%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $50 −$35 -69%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $9 +$3 +28%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $9 +$4 +42%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $10 −$3 -27%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $5 +$1 +24%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $10 +$6 +65%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 19 $10 +$3 +28%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $9 +$3 +31%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $9 +$2 +16%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $50 −$19 -37%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $24 +$1 +5%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$1 -5%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet Jun 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $24 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $24 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $50 +$5 +11%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $49 +$6 +12%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $49 +$2 +5%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $9 +$2 +16%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $9 +$3 +32%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $5 +$1 +27%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $9 +$4 +39%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $10 +$1 +12%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $30 +$8 +27%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $5 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 18 $20 +$13 +64%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $49 +$8 +16%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 86¢ $25 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $25 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $25 8h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 96¢ $24 9h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 93¢ $25 9h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $26 11h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $26 11h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 88¢ $25 12h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 88¢ $5 15h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 15h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $25 15h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 76¢ $5 15h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu BUY Ayla Aksu 45¢ $5 16h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Elina Svitolina 64¢ $5 17h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 84¢ $5 17h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Viktorija Golubic 73¢ $5 17h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Elina Svitolina 68¢ $5 17h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 47¢ $14 17h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $15 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $15 18h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu BUY Jeline Vandromme 69¢ $5 18h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 61¢ $5 18h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 77¢ $5 18h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 70¢ $4 19h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 70¢ $5 19h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 68¢ $5 19h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 73¢ $4 19h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 82¢ $5 19h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Susan Bandecchi 62¢ $5 20h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 80¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 610 history records