Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:59:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BF 0xbf60…c76e sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$7,719 (-54%) realized −$7,706 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$512per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$7,694
politics 1% +$27
crypto 1% −$36
world 0% −$44
other 0% +$7
tech 0% +$16
economics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +42.2% +28.7% 100% 100% +28.2%
≤30d 2 +42.2% +28.7% 100% 100% +28.2%
≤90d 3 -5.2% -14.2% 67% 67% -22.8%
all 27 +3.8% -6.1% 52% 52% -58.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 52% -58.4%
10% -15.1% 44% -62.4%
15% -23.3% 44% -66.0%
20% -30.8% 26% -69.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$305 vs −$922 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$7,706
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage552d
Avg bet$512
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Up 70¢ 44¢ $36 $23 −$13 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 21 $18 +$8 +44%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Jun 21 $41 +$17 +41%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 15 $40 −$39 -99%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Feb 10 $13 +$2 +14%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 10 $43 +$7 +16%
Ravens vs. Steelers Feb 10 $26 +$44 +170%
Spurs vs. Lakers Feb 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Celtics vs. Wizards Dec 04 $88 −$88 -100%
Cowboys vs. Lions Dec 04 $4,920 −$4,920 -100%
Bears vs. Vikings Nov 16 $4,071 −$4,071 -100%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Nov 16 $48 +$43 +89%
Buccaneers vs. Lions Oct 20 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 20 $17 +$22 +127%
Patriots vs. Bills Oct 06 $374 +$1,326 +354%
Tigers vs. Mariners Oct 06 $1,591 +$2,709 +170%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in September? Sep 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana above $130 on April 4? Aug 07 $25 +$11 +43%
TikTok sale announced before May? Aug 07 $35 +$16 +45%
Warriors vs. Knicks Mar 31 $20 +$35 +170%
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary? Feb 23 $29 +$12 +43%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Jan 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Suns vs. Hawks Jan 19 $24 +$18 +75%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Dec 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Dec 16 $24 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 70¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Spirit 69¢ $18 37d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 67¢ $14 66d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 67¢ $25 66d
Pelicans vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 71¢ $41 99d
Spurs vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 29¢ $32 131d
Ravens vs. Steelers BUY Steelers 37¢ $26 171d
Celtics vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 22¢ $88 198d
Cowboys vs. Lions BUY Cowboys 41¢ $4,920 198d
Bears vs. Vikings BUY Vikings 59¢ $4,071 216d
Buccaneers vs. Lions BUY Buccaneers 30¢ $2,700 243d
Patriots vs. Bills BUY Patriots 22¢ $374 259d
Tigers vs. Mariners BUY Tigers 37¢ $1,591 259d
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 86¢ $43 279d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 10¢ $10 279d
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? BUY Yes 53¢ $48 279d
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in September? BUY No 22¢ $16 287d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 306d
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? BUY Yes 40¢ $24 312d
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? BUY No 44¢ $17 317d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? BUY No 88¢ $13 323d
Solana above $130 on April 4? BUY No 70¢ $25 446d
Warriors vs. Knicks BUY Warriors 37¢ $20 473d
TikTok sale announced before May? BUY No 69¢ $35 482d
Ethereum all time high by March 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $17 518d
Suns vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 57¢ $24 522d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? BUY Yes 66¢ $26 552d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 552d
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary? BUY Yes 70¢ $29 552d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.14 · official $22.62 (match) · 44 history records