Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BF 0xbf64…e473 crypto 657 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-1%) realized −$289 · open +$211
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%298W / 352L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$7,505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$175
crypto 37% −$117
sports 4% −$7
finance 1% −$20
politics 1% −$2
tech 0% −$9
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +10.2% -0.3% 67% 67% +46.2%
≤90d 650 -5.4% -14.4% 46% 42% -12.4%
all 650 -5.4% -14.4% 46% 42% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 42% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 38% -20.8%
15% -30.1% 34% -28.4%
20% -36.9% 30% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$7,505
Realized−$289
Unrealized+$211
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses298 / 352
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)650 / 657
History coverage54d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3,036 $3,054 +$18 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $1,080 $1,065 −$15 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 72¢ 96¢ $720 $957 +$237 (+33%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $830 $825 −$5 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $748 $741 −$7 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $560 $553 −$7 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $320 $310 −$10 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 260 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $12 +$8 +65%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $29 +$19 +66%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 22 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 17 $8 −$2 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 17 $1 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 17 $4 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 17 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 17 $12 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 17 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 17 $26 −$16 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 17 $3 +$3 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 17 $10 −$5 -49%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 17 $12 −$2 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 17 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 17 $5 +$4 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 17 $20 +$7 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 17 $13 +$14 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 17 $20 +$5 +27%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 17 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 17 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 17 $4 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 17 $4 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 17 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 17 $3 +$5 +190%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 17 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 17 $3 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 17 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 17 $2 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 17 $6 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $124 2m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $49 8m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $24 11m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $22 15m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 15m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 16m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $207 17m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 18m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 18m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $19 19m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $30 19m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $24 20m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 21m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $61 23m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 31m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 32m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $98 33m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 36m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $166 39m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $432 40m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 43m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 46m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $25 54m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 56m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $117 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $67 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,504.87 · official $7,504.37 (match) · 2058 history records