trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? | No | 21¢ | 24¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+12%) |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+16%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $2 | +$1 | +52% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 08 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? | Jul 01 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? | Jun 26 | $4 | −$1 | -18% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? | May 20 | $13 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Greece finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? | May 19 | $13 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? | May 17 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | May 16 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will AppLovin buy TikTok? | May 16 | $17 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? | May 15 | $17 | $0 | -2% |
| Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 | May 15 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 | May 14 | $17 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 12 | $16 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci | May 11 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? | May 10 | $17 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? | May 10 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? | May 09 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec | May 09 | $17 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? | May 08 | $17 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? | May 08 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | May 07 | $20 | −$3 | -14% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 06 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Eric Adams a Republican before April? | Mar 31 | $1 | $0 | -34% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +15.3% | +4.3% | 67% | 33% | -8.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +15.3% | +4.3% | 67% | 33% | -8.1% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +15.3% | +4.3% | 67% | 33% | -8.1% |
| all | 25 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 32% | 4% | -10.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.2% | 4% | -10.4% |
| 10% | -18.8% | 4% | -19.0% |
| 15% | -26.7% | 4% | -26.8% |
| 20% | -33.8% | 4% | -34.0% |