Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:58:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BF 0xbf66…3436 other 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,190 (-12%) realized −$1,190 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%33W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$790
14 days−$790
30 days−$782
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$1,625
crypto 15% −$394
weather 7% +$497
sports 6% +$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +19.9% +8.5% 29% 21% -47.6%
≤30d 16 +18.0% +6.8% 31% 25% -42.1%
≤90d 66 +21.0% +9.4% 35% 33% -26.1%
all 86 +25.8% +13.8% 38% 35% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.8% 35% -21.3%
10% +2.9% 35% -28.8%
15% -7.0% 31% -35.7%
20% -16.1% 31% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$107 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,190
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses33 / 53
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage107d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 +$303 +982%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $315 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$51 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-10? Jun 12 $818 −$818 -100%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-03-08? Jun 12 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $248 +$409 +165%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $153 −$150 -98%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $145 +$158 +109%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $265 −$215 -81%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $262 −$257 -98%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $343 +$491 +143%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $120 −$118 -98%
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Huracán end in a draw? May 09 $197 −$77 -39%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $209 −$205 -98%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-03-06? May 04 $239 −$236 -99%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-03-06? May 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $51 +$14 +27%
Will CA Sarmiento vs. CA Tigre end in a draw? Apr 26 $170 −$114 -67%
Will CA Aldosivi win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will CA Independiente win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $239 −$234 -98%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $311 −$41 -13%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $498 −$489 -98%
Will CA Talleres win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $263 +$235 +89%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $168 +$96 +57%
Will CA Independiente win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $50 +$40 +81%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $29 +$99 +343%
Will CA Belgrano vs. CA Aldosivi end in a draw? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 10? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 10? Apr 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on April 9? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 9? Apr 09 $20 +$98 +490%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-04-03? Apr 04 $96 −$96 -100%
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-04-02? Apr 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 1? Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-03-31? Apr 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-03-31? Apr 02 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Croatia end in a draw? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 1? Apr 01 $30 +$343 +1145%
Will Mexico vs. Belgium end in a draw? Apr 01 $50 +$150 +300%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $23 +$14 +61%
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $208 +$195 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 35h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 35h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $315 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $42 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $656 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $248 7d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $153 28d
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $303 28d
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 47¢ $145 28d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? SELL Yes 10¢ $51 30d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $265 30d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 33¢ $262 33d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 21¢ $307 39d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 1¢ $276 39d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 0¢ $33 39d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 39d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 39d
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $835 39d
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 39¢ $38 39d
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 39d
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 39d
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 45¢ $120 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 198 history records