Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:25:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf67…6842 sports 237 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$172 (-3%) realized −$245 · open +$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%48W / 185L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$140
14 days−$265
30 days−$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$445
crypto 23% +$327
other 14% −$13
world 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -19.1% -26.8% 28% 27% -16.7%
≤30d 221 -22.2% -29.6% 21% 21% -13.5%
≤90d 233 -24.8% -31.9% 21% 20% -14.2%
all 233 -24.8% -31.9% 21% 20% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 20% -14.2%
10% -38.4% 20% -22.4%
15% -44.4% 20% -29.9%
20% -49.8% 18% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$16 · ×3.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$245
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses48 / 185
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions4
Markets (closed)233 / 237
History coverage39d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 8¢ 52¢ $15 $100 +$85 (+566%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-45%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 184 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $14 +$25 +172%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $131 +$64 +48%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $81 +$62 +76%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 21 $101 +$80 +79%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $24 −$24 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $41 +$68 +168%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $81 −$80 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 +$54 +53%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $15 +$100 +650%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$27 +133%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $31 +$28 +92%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $41 +$28 +68%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Warsh say "Rate" or "Cut" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$33 +64%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $70 −$68 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $39 22m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $195 23m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $14 41m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 8¢ $15 50m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $131 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 8h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $81 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $24 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Under 55¢ $101 12h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 12h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 12h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 32h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 32h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 44¢ $102 32h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Netherlands 93¢ $109 32h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $81 32h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 34¢ $41 32h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 34h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 34h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 34h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 34h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $20 34h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $155 46h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.58 · official $117.58 (match) · 326 history records