Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:34:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BF 0xbf68…ae5c crypto 495 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$10,982 (-59%) realized −$4,958 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%184W / 332L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day108.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,205
7 days−$1,513
14 days−$2,487
30 days−$5,207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$4,029
sports 1% +$8
other 0% +$13
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -11.7% -20.1% 36% 34% -37.5%
≤30d 489 -21.8% -29.2% 35% 34% -37.1%
≤90d 516 -20.5% -28.1% 36% 34% -34.2%
all 516 -20.5% -28.1% 36% 34% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover108.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.1% 34% -34.2%
10% ← realistic here -35.0% 32% -40.5%
15% -41.2% 29% -46.2%
20% -47.0% 25% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$32 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$4,958
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses184 / 332
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)516 / 495
History coverage31d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day108.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 516 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 8AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Canadiens 29¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$11 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $72 −$52 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$16 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 9PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$27 +468%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9PM ET Jun 14 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$27 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$5 +71%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$6 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$14 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $44 +$40 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$61 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $94 −$57 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $138 −$132 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $53 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $16 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.72 · official $11.72 (match) · 3500 history records