Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf69…2e7d crypto 767 markets active 3d ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$182 (+5%) realized +$182 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%346W / 421L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$36
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -67.9% -71.0% 8% 8% -67.6%
≤30d 644 -6.2% -15.1% 43% 43% -11.7%
≤90d 767 -0.9% -10.3% 45% 45% -6.7%
all 767 -0.9% -10.3% 45% 45% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 45% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 45% -15.7%
15% -26.7% 45% -23.8%
20% -33.9% 41% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$182
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses346 / 421
Open positions0
Markets (closed)767 / 767
History coverage31d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 767 Trades
no open positions (341 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$5 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$3 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$4 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$4 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $148.45 · 1252 history records