Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:47:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BF 0xbf6a…1ddb sports 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,284 (-11%) realized −$2,279 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%54W / 70L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$278est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$2,080
other 2% −$424
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 -21.6% -29.0% 54% 54% -15.1%
≤90d 124 -21.6% -29.1% 44% 41% -20.3%
all 124 -21.6% -29.1% 44% 41% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 41% -20.3%
10% -35.9% 37% -27.9%
15% -42.1% 29% -34.9%
20% -47.7% 25% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$131 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$2,279
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses54 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$278
Open positions6
Markets (closed)124 / 130
History coverage61d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 11 $21 $0 -2%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $32 +$18 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $53 +$18 +34%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $31 +$14 +44%
ITF San Gregorio: Aurora Zantedeschi vs Sofia Rocchetti Jun 11 $42 +$8 +18%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 11 $18 −$18 -99%
Overwatch: Trap12 vs Najdorf (BO3) - OCS Pacific Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 11 $10 −$9 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar Jun 11 $25 +$8 +31%
ITF Kayseri: Rafael De Alba vs Maxwell Mckennon Jun 11 $25 +$5 +20%
ITF Tokyo: Eri Shimizu vs Nanari Katsumi Jun 11 $43 +$7 +17%
ITF Madrid: Briyana Ivanova vs Paula Cembranos Jun 11 $38 −$38 -99%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $32 −$32 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - BC Game Mas May 08 $96 −$95 -99%
Counter-Strike: Partizan Esport vs Oldboys (BO3) - Exort Series Main S May 08 $31 +$13 +40%
Map Handicap: PAR (-1.5) vs Oldboys (+1.5) May 08 $51 +$1 +2%
Game Handicap: HMBLE (-2.5) vs Colossal Gaming (+2.5) May 07 $3 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - BC Gam May 07 $29 −$28 -98%
Wuxi: Mark Lajal vs Mikhail Kukushkin May 06 $49 +$33 +67%
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs SNARKY (BO3) - UKIC Masters Division Playof May 06 $4 +$5 +119%
Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 15.5 May 06 $7 +$8 +119%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs L1ga Team (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B May 05 $216 −$214 -99%
Counter-Strike: NeverPlay vs Pitstop crew (BO3) - Exort Series Contend May 05 $48 −$48 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 05 $45 −$44 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 May 05 $369 −$363 -98%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A May 05 $155 −$153 -99%
LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs Dark Passage (BO3) - TCL Regular Season May 05 $113 −$111 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - CCT South Amer May 05 $63 −$62 -98%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5 May 05 $60 −$59 -98%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Pl May 04 $190 −$187 -98%
Map Handicap: WC (-1.5) vs Voca (+1.5) May 04 $170 +$141 +83%
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) May 04 $105 +$218 +206%
Cagliari: Hubert Hurkacz vs Matteo Arnaldi May 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 03 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: May 03 $175 −$173 -99%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk May 02 $303 +$114 +38%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs AaB Esport (BO3) - European Pro League May 02 $55 +$76 +140%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Abyssal (BO3) - ESL Challenger League O May 02 $104 +$34 +32%
Cagliari: Hubert Hurkacz vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 02 $304 −$300 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger May 02 $191 +$35 +18%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $413 −$410 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 02 $451 +$113 +25%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $45 +$65 +146%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 May 02 $128 +$135 +105%
Will Fijian Drua win? May 02 $14 −$14 -98%
Sabres vs. Bruins May 02 $178 +$154 +86%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 May 02 $125 +$137 +109%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner May 02 $94 +$36 +38%
Map Handicap: WC (-1.5) vs Voca (+1.5) May 01 $222 −$219 -99%
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 01 $103 −$101 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $33 57m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 66¢ $42 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY ECHO 56¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 32¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 34¢ $12 1h
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones SELL Jack Pinnington Jones 69¢ $21 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 74¢ $53 8d
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play BUY UNiTY esports 58¢ $18 8d
Overwatch: Trap12 vs Najdorf (BO3) - OCS Pacific Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Trap12 32¢ $10 8d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 63¢ $32 8d
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar BUY Ivan Marrero Curbelo 76¢ $25 8d
ITF Kayseri: Rafael De Alba vs Maxwell Mckennon BUY Maxwell Mckennon 83¢ $25 8d
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 69¢ $21 9d
ITF Madrid: Briyana Ivanova vs Paula Cembranos BUY Paula Cembranos 76¢ $38 9d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Anastasia Potapova 64¢ $32 9d
ITF San Gregorio: Aurora Zantedeschi vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Aurora Zantedeschi 84¢ $42 9d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 13¢ $3 9d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia BUY Top Esports Challenger 69¢ $24 9d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia BUY Top Esports Challenger 67¢ $6 9d
ITF Tokyo: Eri Shimizu vs Nanari Katsumi BUY Eri Shimizu 85¢ $43 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - BC Game Mas BUY Team Nemesis 65¢ $96 42d
Counter-Strike: Partizan Esport vs Oldboys (BO3) - Exort Series Main S BUY Oldboys 35¢ $31 43d
Map Handicap: PAR (-1.5) vs Oldboys (+1.5) BUY Oldboys 48¢ $51 43d
Game Handicap: HMBLE (-2.5) vs Colossal Gaming (+2.5) SELL Colossal Gaming 47¢ $1 43d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - BC Gam BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 39¢ $29 43d
Game Handicap: HMBLE (-2.5) vs Colossal Gaming (+2.5) SELL Colossal Gaming 50¢ $2 43d
Game Handicap: HMBLE (-2.5) vs Colossal Gaming (+2.5) BUY Colossal Gaming 46¢ $1 44d
Game Handicap: HMBLE (-2.5) vs Colossal Gaming (+2.5) BUY Colossal Gaming 46¢ $1 44d
Game Handicap: HMBLE (-2.5) vs Colossal Gaming (+2.5) BUY Colossal Gaming 46¢ $1 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.33 · official $129.33 (match) · 362 history records