Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BF 0xbf6e…94ed sports 687 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$56 (+2%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate25%168W / 516L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$20
14 days+$19
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$111
sports 26% −$65
world 21% +$11
crypto 1% −$3
weather 1% −$10
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -29.5% -36.2% 28% 28% -1.2%
≤30d 65 -21.6% -29.0% 35% 34% -8.6%
≤90d 428 -23.2% -30.5% 21% 20% -10.7%
all 684 -11.1% -19.6% 25% 19% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 19% -7.9%
10% -27.3% 18% -16.7%
15% -34.3% 16% -24.8%
20% -40.7% 15% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses168 / 516
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)684 / 687
History coverage130d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 684 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $18 +$14 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -72%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $6 −$2 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -80%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $4 −$1 -32%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 25 $4 −$3 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $31 +$30 +98%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $13 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$2 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $38 −$11 -30%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $19 +$6 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $2 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $8 +$2 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $39 +$3 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $29 −$9 -30%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $14 +$5 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $22 −$11 -49%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +44%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $22 +$5 +23%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -33%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $41 −$38 -93%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$6 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $25 +$68 +274%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $37 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $26 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 9h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 9h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 9h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 9h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 10h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 10h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 10h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 10h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $9 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.83 · official $6.83 (match) · 2221 history records