Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:48:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BF 0xbf70…99b2 other 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%47W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$6
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$35
politics 20% −$8
other 18% +$8
sports 13% +$4
economics 3% +$1
crypto 2% +$9
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 27 +1.9% -7.8% 44% 7% -10.2%
≤90d 81 +25.2% +13.3% 38% 4% -9.7%
all 114 +18.4% +7.1% 41% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 4% -9.7%
10% -3.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -12.5% 3% -26.2%
20% -21.1% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses47 / 67
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage473d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $120 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $139 +$1 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $99 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $122 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $168 +$3 +2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $123 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $338 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $11 +$6 +57%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $433 −$4 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $388 +$1 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $121 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $116 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $241 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $428 −$21 -5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $120 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $284 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $242 −$36 -15%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $273 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $92 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $147 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $137 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $180 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $72 +$14 +19%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $156 −$4 -3%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $5 $0 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 19 $154 +$2 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $538 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $11 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $177 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 27 $156 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $3 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $162 +$2 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $217 −$7 -3%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $168 +$1 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $159 +$1 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $168 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $153 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $167 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $68 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $310 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $320 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $6 $0 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 13 $320 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $120 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $120 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 9¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $9 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $27 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $55 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $17 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $99 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $66 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $62 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $76 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $46 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $122 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $122 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $99 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $13 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $92 8d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $122 9d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $123 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $64 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $65 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $133 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.00 (match) · 457 history records