Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:50:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf71…721a other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$2
other 31% −$1
culture 8% +$2
sports 6% −$6
crypto 5% $0
politics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.8% -10.3% 43% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.9%
all 42 -4.5% -13.6% 31% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 2% -10.4%
10% -21.8% 2% -19.0%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.8%
20% -36.3% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage475d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $3 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $30 −$3 -9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $34 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $9 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? May 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 13 $2 $0 -6%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 07 $14 −$2 -15%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before April? Mar 27 $19 $0 +0%
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged before April? Mar 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Mar 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $87000 on Mar 21? Mar 21 $19 $0 +1%
Will "Incident" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 21 $15 +$4 +28%
Will "The Wild Robot" win Best Original Score at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on March 3? Mar 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will "The Substance" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will "A Different Man" win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 2025 Osc Mar 02 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $25 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $29 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $29 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $11 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $17 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $28 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $18 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $9 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $27 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $27 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $20 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $11 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $8 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $1 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $30 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $30 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.03 · official $30.07 (match) · 118 history records