Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:18:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BF 0xbf71…a111 world 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-1%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$38
sports 22% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -28.0% -34.9% 0% 0% -16.4%
≤90d 10 -12.9% -21.2% 40% 0% -10.8%
all 10 -12.9% -21.2% 40% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 0% -10.8%
10% -28.7% 0% -19.4%
15% -35.6% 0% -27.1%
20% -41.9% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$39 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$375
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage85d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $375 $375 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? Jun 29 $376 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $248 $0 +0%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Jun 17 $258 $0 +0%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $105 −$42 -40%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Apr 26 $411 +$4 +1%
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-1.5) Apr 25 $427 +$26 +6%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 24 $427 $0 +0%
Spread: Girona FC (-2.5) Apr 07 $218 +$9 +4%
Will France strike Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $192 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $375.38 · official $375.38 (match) · 23 history records