Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:49:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbf71…9455 crypto 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,307 (-11%) realized −$2,487 · open −$820
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate78%70W / 20L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day36.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5,313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$735
crypto 32% +$339
other 16% −$94
politics 3% −$4
sports 2% +$482
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -2.6% -11.9% 78% 24% -3.9%
≤30d 90 -2.6% -11.9% 78% 24% -3.9%
≤90d 90 -2.6% -11.9% 78% 24% -3.9%
all 90 -2.6% -11.9% 78% 24% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 24% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 8% -13.1%
15% -28.0% 6% -21.5%
20% -35.1% 6% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$32 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$5,313
Realized−$2,487
Unrealized−$820
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses70 / 20
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)90 / 95
History coverage6d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day36.8
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 78¢ $4,606 $4,491 −$115 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 18¢ 7¢ $1,200 $479 −$721 (-60%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 82¢ 85¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? No 89¢ 94¢ $122 $130 +$8 (+7%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$50 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $151 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $150 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $170 +$21 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $328 −$43 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$52 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $805 +$80 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $253 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $203 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$30 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $106 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $56 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$11 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $56 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,312.66 · official $5,312.66 (match) · 307 history records