Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbf72…0275 crypto 421 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$314 (+6%) realized +$314 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%251W / 170L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days+$40
14 days+$34
30 days+$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -0.5% -10.0% 55% 55% -3.9%
≤30d 205 +0.7% -8.9% 59% 59% -4.6%
≤90d 421 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 60% -5.4%
all 421 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 60% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 60% -5.4%
10% -17.4% 60% -14.5%
15% -25.4% 60% -22.7%
20% -32.7% 57% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$314
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses251 / 170
Open positions0
Markets (closed)421 / 421
History coverage57d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 421 Trades
no open positions (168 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $52 +$36 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $22 −$21 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$6 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$5 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $7 +$5 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$5 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $22 −$21 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$13 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$6 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$17 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $22 +$16 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $22 +$17 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$21 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$12 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$21 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $7 +$6 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $22 +$17 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$46 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$21 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$6 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$6 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$11 +145%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $22 +$15 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$5 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$6 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $22 +$18 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $7 +$7 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $22 +$19 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$8 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$6 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $22 +$17 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$5 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$21 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $22 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $22 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $22 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $22 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $22 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $22 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $22 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $10 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $22 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $22 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $7 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $22 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 674 history records