Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf72…2a2c other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$124 (-4%) realized −$121 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day32.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$64
world 29% −$32
tech 11% −$28
sports 10% −$9
politics 8% −$11
culture 8% −$28
weather 3% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -8.4% -17.2% 0% 0% -14.4%
≤30d 39 -8.4% -17.2% 0% 0% -14.4%
≤90d 39 -8.4% -17.2% 0% 0% -14.4%
all 39 -8.4% -17.2% 0% 0% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 0% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 0% -22.6%
15% -32.3% 0% -30.1%
20% -39.0% 0% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$5 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$121
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 39
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage6d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day32.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by less than 5%? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $4 $2 −$3 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $364 −$8 -2%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $170 −$20 -12%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 20 $174 −$8 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $6 $0 -3%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 20 $195 −$7 -4%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $6 $0 -4%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 19 $119 −$6 -5%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $221 −$12 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $30 −$2 -5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $348 −$12 -3%
Will Taihei Sato make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $25 $0 -1%
Will J.T. Poston make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 19 $164 −$33 -20%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $53 −$1 -2%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 19 $6 $0 -2%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les Jun 19 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 19 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $220 −$6 -3%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $21 −$2 -8%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 19 $209 −$25 -12%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 19 $135 −$3 -2%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 19 $3 $0 -2%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 19 $48 −$4 -8%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 19 $94 −$1 -1%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 19 $49 −$3 -7%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 19 $80 −$1 -2%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 19 $46 −$1 -3%
Will Wyndham Clark lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the first round? Jun 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 18 $13 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 18 $62 −$8 -13%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 18 $10 −$2 -22%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 18 $74 −$5 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 20? Jun 18 $11 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 17 $24 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $26 $0 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $24 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $24 $0 -1%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -2% and 0% in May? Jun 14 $12 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 26¢ $14 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 72¢ $36 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 27¢ $14 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $37 1h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $52 1h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $60 1h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $98 1h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $110 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 73¢ $31 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 25¢ $11 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 75¢ $32 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 26¢ $11 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 81¢ $166 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 85¢ $174 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 37¢ $0 2h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 75¢ $38 2h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 75¢ $0 2h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 77¢ $10 2h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 2h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 77¢ $40 2h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $2 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $0 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $2 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 3h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 23¢ $12 4h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 75¢ $37 10h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 25¢ $14 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.68 · official $1.73 (match) · 221 history records