Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbf74…aa8e crypto 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$541 (-11%) realized −$464 · open −$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%44W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$163
14 days+$142
30 days+$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$720
crypto 29% −$269
finance 22% +$176
sports 15% +$307
economics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +68.4% +52.3% 43% 43% +15.8%
≤30d 26 +33.3% +20.6% 42% 42% +7.6%
≤90d 145 -6.9% -15.7% 29% 28% -14.6%
all 155 -10.3% -18.9% 28% 28% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 28% -18.4%
10% -26.6% 28% -26.2%
15% -33.7% 27% -33.3%
20% -40.2% 25% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$21 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$464
Realized−$464
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses44 / 111
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions10
Markets (closed)155 / 165
History coverage98d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $130 $141 +$11 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 53¢ 36¢ $151 $102 −$49 (-33%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $95 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $65 $42 −$22 (-35%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 11¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-45%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $29 +$69 +238%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$63 +307%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$70 +344%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$92 +596%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 13 $210 +$47 +22%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $150 +$72 +48%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $83 −$81 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $156 +$85 +55%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 28 $110 +$86 +78%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $41 +$34 +83%
Will Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? May 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $18 −$18 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 21 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 20 $25 −$24 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $23 +$77 +344%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 14 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $54 +$44 +83%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 10 $30 +$70 +238%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 09 $25 +$75 +307%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $40 −$23 -57%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $35 −$20 -58%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Kurt Kitayama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $20 +$17 +86%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 07 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $95 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 30h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 30h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 36h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 36h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 36h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 38h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 46h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 53¢ $102 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 52¢ $52 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 32¢ $31 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $257 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 7d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $69 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 69¢ $210 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 51¢ $51 17d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 70¢ $142 17d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 18d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? SELL No 100¢ $242 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $464.26 · official $464.26 (match) · 332 history records