Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BF 0xbf77…54a2 other 8 markets active 2d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$581 (+8%) realized +$581 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$917per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$508
crypto 3% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +9.6% -0.8% 88% 62% -3.0%
≤30d 8 +9.6% -0.8% 88% 62% -3.0%
≤90d 8 +9.6% -0.8% 88% 62% -3.0%
all 8 +9.6% -0.8% 88% 62% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.8% 62% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -10.3% 38% -12.2%
15% -19.0% 25% -20.7%
20% -26.9% 12% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$312 vs −$1,655 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$581
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$917
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,409 +$169 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $97 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $97 +$10 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,443 +$1,647 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,663 −$1,655 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $626 +$142 +23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $600 +$12 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $404 +$193 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,409 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $111 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $97 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $107 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $97 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $2,443 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $893 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $771 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $768 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $626 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $612 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $600 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $404 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records