Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:26:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbf7e…e7aa sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$167 (+12%) realized +$173 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$125
14 days+$252
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$205
other 15% +$44
crypto 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +3.6% -6.3% 41% 41% +1.8%
≤30d 22 +9.1% -1.3% 41% 41% +11.2%
≤90d 22 +9.1% -1.3% 41% 41% +11.2%
all 22 +9.1% -1.3% 41% 41% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 41% +11.2%
10% -10.8% 41% +0.5%
15% -19.4% 36% -9.2%
20% -27.3% 27% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$26 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized+$173
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 26
History coverage8d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 44¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $101 −$4 -4%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $101 +$33 +32%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $51 +$34 +67%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 −$4 -8%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 +$121 +238%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $50 +$20 +40%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $152 +$72 +47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Jun 25 $31 −$7 -23%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- Jun 25 $30 −$3 -10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$108 +212%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 +$166 +325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +114%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Verso Time vs Virtus.pro (BO5) - BetBoom Ris Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 72¢ $96 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 13h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $101 13h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 22h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $101 22h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $47 46h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $51 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $51 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 3d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to SELL $24 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- SELL 46¢ $27 4d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $50 4d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to BUY 10¢ $31 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 50¢ $30 4d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 56¢ $48 4d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $51 4d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U BUY 14¢ $31 4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY 20¢ $51 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 31¢ $51 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.12 · official $144.13 (match) · 45 history records