Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:54:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbf7f…bb65 crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$213 (+7%) realized +$199 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate78%39W / 11L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$313
14 days+$346
30 days+$346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$150
other 30% +$110
sports 9% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +0.8% -8.8% 77% 53% +0.9%
≤30d 50 +2.7% -7.1% 78% 56% +1.5%
≤90d 50 +2.7% -7.1% 78% 56% +1.5%
all 50 +2.7% -7.1% 78% 56% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 56% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 36% -8.2%
15% -24.1% 20% -17.1%
20% -31.6% 14% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$25 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized+$199
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses39 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 57
History coverage7d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 95¢ 99¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $109 $115 +$6 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $138 +$63 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $91 +$55 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $116 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $115 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $161 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $105 +$5 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $131 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $55 +$8 +14%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +55%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $191 +$18 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $182 +$33 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $35 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$7 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$27 -88%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $35 +$8 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $76 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$14 +17%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? AND Jun 17 $162 +$89 +55%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $133 +$32 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $41 +$92 +226%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $36 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$11 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Australia win on 2026-0 BUY 30¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323.15 · official $342.15 · 205 history records