Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:04:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbf80…9163 sports 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$558 (-21%) realized −$559 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate27%35W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$10
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$412
sports 26% −$159
politics 5% +$3
world 2% +$29
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -16.9% -24.8% 35% 32% -7.6%
≤30d 40 -4.9% -14.0% 40% 35% -6.2%
≤90d 44 -3.5% -12.7% 39% 34% -5.8%
all 132 -25.3% -32.4% 27% 23% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 23% -28.8%
10% -38.9% 23% -35.6%
15% -44.8% 23% -41.8%
20% -50.2% 20% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$559
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses35 / 97
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)132 / 134
History coverage219d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Over 57¢ 59¢ $22 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$28 +111%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2 $0 -6%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $8 −$1 -11%
Uruguay to win the second half? Jun 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $7 +$7 +93%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$3 -14%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $7 $0 -7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$2 -23%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 −$1 -5%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 +$14 +68%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 −$4 -79%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $18 +$12 +64%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$4 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 -7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +66%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$51 +50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 +$13 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 +$12 +44%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 −$1 -4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -13%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$18 -99%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +91%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$3 -41%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$10 +64%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +249%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $10 −$8 -80%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $8 +$27 +324%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers Feb 10 $56 −$19 -33%
Jazz vs. Heat Feb 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Feb 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Ugo Humbert Feb 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Bucks vs. Magic Feb 09 $5 $0 -10%
Kings vs. Pelicans Feb 09 $5 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $11 41m
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $11 57m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $53 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 8h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 43¢ $2 9h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $3 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 15h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 15h
Uruguay to win the second half? BUY Yes 59¢ $45 27h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 56¢ $14 28h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 28¢ $7 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 52¢ $17 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 30h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $7 34h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $7 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 30¢ $8 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 44¢ $10 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 45¢ $10 36h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $34 46h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 SELL Over 7¢ $1 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 70¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.66 · official $24.66 (match) · 267 history records