Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:36:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BF 0xbf83…3385 sports 250 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,782 (+6%) realized +$21,622 · open +$160
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate56%136W / 108L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$1,414per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Fees−$4,204est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,579now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,876
7 days+$5,286
14 days+$6,366
30 days+$17,794
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$15,640
other 24% +$2,492
crypto 0% −$161
world 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +90.3% +72.2% 67% 25% -7.2%
≤30d 219 +56.9% +42.0% 57% 27% -4.1%
≤90d 235 +50.7% +36.3% 55% 26% -4.1%
all 244 +49.4% +35.2% 56% 27% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.2% 27% -4.1%
10% +22.3% 20% -13.3%
15% ← realistic here +10.4% 16% -21.7%
20% -0.4% 11% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$1,631) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +84% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$105 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$1,579
Realized+$21,622
Unrealized+$160
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses136 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$4,204
Open positions6
Markets (closed)244 / 250
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$1,414
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $488 $703 +$215 (+44%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $244 $331 +$87 (+36%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ $475 $246 −$229 (-48%)
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 19¢ $149 $233 +$84 (+56%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $62 $65 +$3 (+5%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $412 −$29 -7%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $119 +$16 +14%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $970 −$152 -16%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,417 +$151 +11%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $541 +$859 +159%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2,595 −$155 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $369 −$13 -4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$37 +2399%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,904 +$35 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,463 +$161 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2,172 +$674 +31%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $16 +$479 +3080%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,501 +$250 +17%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,729 +$573 +33%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $881 −$71 -8%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $2,357 +$23 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,635 −$576 -22%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,146 +$826 +38%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,720 +$216 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1,631 +$203 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5,670 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,501 −$7 -0%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,487 +$28 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3,792 +$337 +9%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $7,216 +$72 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,501 +$14 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4,505 +$830 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,017 −$435 -43%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,005 −$39 -4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7,032 +$35 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,504 −$144 -6%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $6,803 +$58 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $540 −$274 -51%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,518 −$106 -7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3,595 +$33 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7,053 −$26 -0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,453 −$342 -24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $200 −$104 -52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $3,402 +$33 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5,870 +$20 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,255 +$605 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,217 +$12 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $698 −$162 -23%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,116 −$769 -69%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,428 +$401 +28%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,733 +$471 +27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $681 −$22 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5,267 +$122 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 42¢ $45 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 42¢ $5 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 42¢ $333 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $412 20m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $135 21m
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $74 22m
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $44 22m
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $37 22m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 68¢ $111 25m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 68¢ $8 25m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 22¢ $259 35m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 24¢ $124 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 29¢ $3 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 29¢ $39 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 29¢ $17 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 29¢ $7 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 29¢ $10 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 29¢ $5 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 29¢ $8 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 29¢ $29 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 29¢ $29 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 29¢ $362 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 46¢ $435 49m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $281 51m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $9 51m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $92 51m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 51m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $12 51m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 51m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $58 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,578.79 · official $1,578.93 (match) · 3455 history records