Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:35:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf83…a140 crypto 453 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%165W / 288L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$480est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days−$943
14 days−$3,035
30 days−$2,203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$873
crypto 19% −$5
other 5% +$393
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -13.7% -22.0% 30% 29% -19.4%
≤30d 322 -16.6% -24.6% 30% 30% -17.8%
≤90d 439 -2.5% -11.8% 36% 34% -12.5%
all 453 -1.3% -10.7% 36% 35% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 35% -10.7%
10% -19.3% 34% -19.2%
15% -27.1% 31% -27.0%
20% -34.2% 29% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +30% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$50 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses165 / 288
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$480
Open positions0
Markets (closed)453 / 453
History coverage103d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 453 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$7 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$30 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $46 +$26 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $29 +$58 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$30 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$20 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$91 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $75 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$47 -96%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $100 +$190 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$41 -88%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $92 −$46 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$15 -50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $82 −$52 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$60 +280%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $50 −$28 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$2 -11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 −$44 -81%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$17 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$30 +137%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $160 −$126 -79%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $38 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -96%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $80 +$37 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $224 +$67 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $73 −$31 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$8 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$31 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $56 −$33 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $24 −$5 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $16 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $14 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $40 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND SELL 57¢ $290 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 19¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $47 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1096 history records