Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:46:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BF 0xbf85…2016 politics 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,372 (-2%) realized −$1,372 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%17W / 73L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$988per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,028now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$13
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$1,325
politics 35% −$31
sports 21% −$34
economics 1% −$1
world 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 -9.2% -17.8% 13% 6% -12.1%
all 90 +0.7% -8.9% 19% 13% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 13% -10.9%
10% -17.6% 13% -19.4%
15% -25.5% 13% -27.2%
20% -32.8% 11% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,345) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$33 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$1,028
Realized−$1,372
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses17 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage107d
Avg bet$988
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $559 $560 +$0 (+0%)
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $468 $468 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,433 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $835 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2,237 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $931 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,048 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,864 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 04 $81 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $5,259 −$5 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $231 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,592 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $215 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $229 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $215 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 07 $1,386 −$1,386 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $1,415 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $3,392 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,316 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $2,587 −$3 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $1,220 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 04 $1,855 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $4,681 −$5 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 01 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $2,638 −$3 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $2,750 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $2,979 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $1,803 −$2 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $915 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Clippers Mar 26 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $1,290 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Jets Mar 25 $86 +$101 +117%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $1,795 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Blue Jackets vs. Lightning Mar 24 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Mar 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Flames vs. Islanders Mar 24 $64 −$64 -100%
Utah vs. Stars Mar 24 $107 −$107 -100%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Mar 24 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-03-13? Mar 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Grizzlies vs. 76ers Mar 24 $119 −$119 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $468 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $463 3h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $463 5h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 25h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 27h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $559 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $777 4d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $777 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $729 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $730 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $866 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $867 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $780 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $781 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $834 10d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $835 10d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $919 11d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $920 11d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $870 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $871 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $930 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $931 13d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $763 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $764 14d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $853 14d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $854 14d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $766 15d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $767 15d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $899 18d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $900 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,027.75 · official $1,027.75 (match) · 288 history records