Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:47:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf88…0343 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$297 (-8%) realized −$187 · open −$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days+$38
14 days+$79
30 days−$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$127
finance 9% −$327
tech 3% +$54
world 1% −$13
politics 1% −$15
crypto 1% −$21
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.9% -6.0% 33% 33% -1.1%
≤30d 39 -14.9% -23.0% 26% 21% -23.7%
≤90d 52 -13.8% -22.0% 35% 27% -18.0%
all 52 -13.8% -22.0% 35% 27% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 27% -18.0%
10% -29.5% 21% -25.8%
15% -36.3% 19% -33.0%
20% -42.5% 13% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$34 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage56d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $42 −$15 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $117 −$90 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $52 −$47 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $31 +$37 +118%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $139 +$154 +111%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $99 +$40 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $72 −$4 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $52 −$22 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $121 −$25 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $81 −$78 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $158 −$111 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $156 +$92 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $56 −$19 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $52 −$27 -52%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 03 $32 −$13 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $59 +$59 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 02 $42 −$22 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $42 −$14 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $36 −$7 -19%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Jun 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $72 +$26 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $42 −$3 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $42 −$28 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $73 +$139 +191%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $50 −$13 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $31 +$80 +258%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 29 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $31 −$17 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 28 $52 −$8 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 28 $52 −$18 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $41 −$9 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $31 −$8 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $31 −$15 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 25 $16 −$16 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30? May 25 $327 −$327 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 24 $111 +$52 +46%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 14 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 11 $10 +$17 +169%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $73 −$73 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? May 05 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 05 $36 −$34 -92%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 03 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during astronaut greeting? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $27 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $62 21h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $55 26h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $6 26h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $2 26h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $2 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $76 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $31 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $42 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $42 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $52 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $52 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $294 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $139 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $139 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $99 16d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $69 16d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 17d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $72 17d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $73 17d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $42 18d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $114 18d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $37 18d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $37 18d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $40 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 144 history records