Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:38:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf8b…cb2c other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$192 (-4%) realized −$192 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate58%26W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$222
7 days−$248
14 days−$190
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$1
sports 21% −$204
world 2% −$26
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -15.0% -23.1% 58% 25% -30.1%
≤30d 45 -6.4% -15.3% 58% 33% -13.9%
≤90d 45 -6.4% -15.3% 58% 33% -13.9%
all 45 -6.4% -15.3% 58% 33% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 33% -13.9%
10% -23.4% 22% -22.1%
15% -30.8% 22% -29.6%
20% -37.6% 16% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$46 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$192
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses26 / 19
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage22d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$3 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 +$6 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $107 −$104 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 −$26 -26%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $9 +$3 +36%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $150 +$16 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $50 +$61 +122%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $150 +$14 +9%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 −$21 -42%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $187 +$39 +21%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $99 +$19 +20%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $242 +$98 +41%
Real Zaragoza vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 May 31 $100 −$100 -100%
AC Goianiense vs. Goiás EC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $150 +$14 +9%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $9 −$7 -73%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $804 −$23 -3%
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 5.5 May 28 $49 +$23 +47%
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $94 +$7 +8%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $225 +$10 +5%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Platense: O/U 2.5 May 28 $16 +$2 +11%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $161 −$148 -92%
Will CA Juventud win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Caracas FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Santos FC vs. CD Cuenca: O/U 3.5 May 27 $0 +$2 +354%
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 1.5 May 27 $26 +$16 +61%
CR Flamengo vs. Cusco FC: O/U 3.5 May 27 $100 +$11 +10%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Recoleta FC win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $5 $0 +6%
Will Club Nacional de Football vs. CD Coquimbo Unido end in a draw? May 27 $156 −$7 -4%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $181 +$11 +6%
Will Montevideo City Torque win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $116 +$193 +166%
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $107 +$85 +79%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $542 +$5 +1%
São Paulo FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 1.5 May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 0.5 May 26 $46 +$6 +13%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $10 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $53 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 54¢ $52 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 20¢ $44 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $11 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 23¢ $48 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $50 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 74¢ $63 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $50 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 1¢ $17 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 6¢ $51 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 4¢ $19 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 4¢ $21 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $73 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $50 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $50 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 47h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $30 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 75¢ $10 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 75¢ $0 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 75¢ $1 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 255 history records