Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BF
0xbf93…2fd7
other · 103 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
+$93,596 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$95,748 · open −$2,152
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43,903
Realized+$95,748
Unrealized−$2,152
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses57 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$306
Open positions5
Markets (closed)98 / 103
History coverage188d
Avg bet$12,148
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 5 History 98 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,763
7 days−$52,072
14 days+$16,124
30 days+$44,481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 60¢ 84¢ $23,369 $32,853 +$9,484 (+41%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 53¢ 19¢ $19,725 $7,106 −$12,619 (-64%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 75¢ 96¢ $2,250 $2,872 +$622 (+28%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 52¢ 82¢ $530 $833 +$303 (+57%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? No 75¢ 98¢ $182 $238 +$57 (+31%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 90¢ 0¢ $11,763 $0 −$11,763 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $11,763 −$11,763 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $24,486 −$24,222 -99%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $9,089 +$1,941 +21%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1,978 +$727 +37%
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? Jun 09 $600 −$89 -15%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $399 +$70 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $10,008 −$9,496 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $4,813 −$4,382 -91%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $5,540 −$4,377 -79%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1,006 −$495 -49%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $77 +$13 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $125,757 +$68,460 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $408 −$264 -65%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? May 22 $2,000 −$1,966 -98%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? May 22 $3,436 −$3,195 -93%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $2,277 +$22,186 +974%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 19 $1,449 +$10,356 +715%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $50,135 +$976 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 10 $28,250 +$5,197 +18%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 07 $6,294 −$390 -6%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 07 $1,874 +$911 +49%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 04 $40,424 −$40,292 -100%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $5,744 +$2,510 +44%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most May 04 $3,708 −$79 -2%
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? May 04 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 04 $2,964 −$857 -29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $55,130 +$10,763 +20%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $7,000 +$3,056 +44%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 29 $29,750 +$15,269 +51%
James Comey arrested by May 15? Apr 29 $500 +$191 +38%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $1,367 −$2 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $17,910 +$407 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $9,050 +$101 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $12,900 +$169 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $5,000 +$3,106 +62%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $5,040 +$2,160 +43%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $4,719 +$5,029 +107%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 18 $3,016 +$38 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $1,900 +$830 +44%
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $23,000 +$9,861 +43%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 14 $3,500 −$1,732 -50%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 06 $7,632 +$3,049 +40%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31? Apr 01 $1,987 +$1,218 +61%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $15,935 +$3,272 +20%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 01 $46,406 +$8,989 +19%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 19 $35,309 +$36,607 +104%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 06 $3,490 +$495 +14%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 03 $3,000 +$248 +8%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $71,672 −$71,672 -100%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $23,091 +$11,452 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% +$54,483
other 30% +$90,146
sports 17% −$24,036
politics 8% −$40,918
tech 6% +$22,289
finance 1% +$407
economics 1% −$3,614
crypto 0% −$5,161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 90¢ $11,763 36h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $2,198 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $5 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $5 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $6 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $6 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $14 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $8 2d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $23,137 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $46 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $27 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $4 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $29 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $4 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $13 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $68 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,460 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $387 3d
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $6,066 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $5,063 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $10,117 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 4¢ $513 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 4¢ $431 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 8¢ $1,163 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 42¢ $1,050 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -39.6% -45.4% 36% 36% -77.1%
≤30d 18 +58.5% +43.4% 44% 39% +6.2%
≤90d 46 +34.3% +21.5% 63% 52% +6.4%
all 98 +8.1% -2.2% 58% 50% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.2% 50% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.5% 35% -11.7%
15% -20.1% 28% -20.2%
20% -27.9% 15% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,902.87 · official $43,902.87 (match) · 1982 history records