Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf96…9942 world 111 markets active 4h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23,910 (+9%) realized +$12,400 · open +$11,510
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate71%72W / 29L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$2,348per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$42,081now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,161
7 days+$4,519
14 days+$4,828
30 days+$4,828
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$13,494
other 24% +$7,118
finance 20% +$6,311
sports 2% +$387
economics 2% +$188
politics 1% −$1,569
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.1% -13.2% 80% 40% +0.8%
≤30d 6 -1.4% -10.8% 83% 50% +0.8%
≤90d 46 -11.1% -19.6% 65% 24% -6.8%
all 101 -6.4% -15.3% 71% 22% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 22% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 8% -13.0%
15% -30.8% 6% -21.4%
20% -37.6% 4% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$2,470) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$356 vs −$400 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$42,081
Realized+$12,400
Unrealized+$11,510
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses72 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions10
Markets (closed)101 / 111
History coverage248d
Avg bet$2,348
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 56¢ 66¢ $10,389 $12,408 +$2,020 (+19%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 84¢ $5,528 $10,958 +$5,430 (+98%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 95¢ $4,985 $5,691 +$706 (+14%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 40¢ 96¢ $2,044 $4,881 +$2,837 (+139%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 87¢ $3,506 $3,552 +$46 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 89¢ 96¢ $2,742 $2,972 +$230 (+8%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 60¢ 72¢ $600 $717 +$117 (+20%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Yes 48¢ 58¢ $466 $563 +$97 (+21%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 88¢ 96¢ $302 $329 +$27 (+9%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,544 +$773 +50%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,420 −$1,420 -100%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1,800 +$129 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29,392 +$4,678 +16%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $5,608 +$358 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 12 $2,550 +$309 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 18 $369 −$16 -4%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 17 $2,043 −$1,994 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 17 $712 +$63 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $492 +$33 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 17 $1,142 +$51 +4%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 16 $856 +$59 +7%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,172 −$1,172 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 15 $8,611 +$79 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 14 $8,189 +$441 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 14 $1,000 +$122 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $3,001 +$292 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $2,328 +$20 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 07 $1,647 −$32 -2%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? May 06 $773 −$771 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 06 $5,460 +$216 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 05 $282 +$13 +4%
Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31? May 05 $517 −$513 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $3,122 −$475 -15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 04 $3,838 +$274 +7%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 02 $595 +$35 +6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 24 $4,533 +$2,196 +48%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $4,044 +$1,393 +34%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 20 $4,199 +$251 +6%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 17 $525 −$400 -76%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 16 $8,157 +$901 +11%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $8,972 −$137 -2%
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $1,807 −$1,655 -92%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $288 −$236 -82%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 04 $1,825 +$212 +12%
Will gas hit (High) $4.15 by April 30? Apr 03 $249 +$14 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 03 $2,793 +$20 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 02 $2,712 +$76 +3%
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1,425 +$75 +5%
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31? Mar 31 $277 +$125 +45%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Mar 29 $631 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 29 $3,375 +$395 +12%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 28 $6,584 +$944 +14%
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by March 31? Mar 25 $64 −$39 -60%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 24 $6,086 −$293 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 24 $2,334 −$901 -39%
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31? Mar 21 $35 −$12 -34%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 19 $108 +$178 +164%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $462 3h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 3h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $420 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $2,196 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,302 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $13 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $33 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $45 4h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $931 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $500 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 60¢ $600 23h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No $83 28h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $200 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $580 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1,929 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $464 28h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No $0 28h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No $5 29h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No $1 29h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No $11 29h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $3 29h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $1 29h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $4 29h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $39 29h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $10 29h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $4 29h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $3 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42,081.38 · official $42,081.38 (match) · 974 history records