Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:22:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BF 0xbf98…d0bf sports 947 markets active 1h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$878 (+1%) realized +$1,007 · open −$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate56%509W / 401L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2,107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days+$290
14 days+$343
30 days+$497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$1,211
other 25% +$384
crypto 18% +$1,003
world 14% +$296
politics 4% +$6
finance 3% +$271
weather 2% +$6
tech 1% −$61
economics 1% −$25
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +64.2% +48.6% 67% 46% +13.9%
≤30d 117 +10.2% -0.3% 56% 44% -2.0%
≤90d 337 +0.3% -9.2% 51% 42% -12.6%
all 910 -0.6% -10.1% 56% 40% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 40% -8.5%
10% -18.7% 30% -17.2%
15% -26.6% 22% -25.2%
20% -33.8% 17% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$29 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$2,107
Realized+$1,007
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses509 / 401
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions36
Markets (closed)910 / 947
History coverage308d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 910 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $593 $606 +$13 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 86¢ 80¢ $200 $186 −$14 (-7%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 53¢ 94¢ $100 $177 +$77 (+77%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $175 $154 −$21 (-12%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? Yes 13¢ 52¢ $35 $140 +$105 (+299%)
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 21¢ $143 $90 −$52 (-37%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? No 52¢ 99¢ $44 $82 +$39 (+88%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 35¢ 69¢ $40 $79 +$39 (+97%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $123 $60 −$63 (-51%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June? Yes 5¢ 36¢ $6 $47 +$41 (+686%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 39¢ 30¢ $60 $47 −$13 (-22%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 75¢ 62¢ $55 $46 −$9 (-16%)
Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026? No 48¢ 22¢ $98 $44 −$54 (-55%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 50¢ 32¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-37%)
Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? No 15¢ 17¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 11¢ 6¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-39%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 10¢ 5¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 36¢ 11¢ $14 $4 −$10 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $101 +$40 +40%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $80 +$10 +12%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $31 +$3 +9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $41 +$15 +36%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $110 +$11 +10%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 27 $19 +$117 +630%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 26 $90 −$70 -77%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 26 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 25 $8 +$67 +793%
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? Jun 24 $61 +$16 +26%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 23 $20 +$78 +391%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$36 +140%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $90 +$17 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $60 +$18 +29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $101 +$19 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $100 +$9 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 19 $102 −$57 -56%
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $17 −$6 -35%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $60 +$8 +13%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $20 −$12 -60%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $60 +$9 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 17 $51 +$12 +24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $200 +$68 +34%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$47 +93%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$10 -87%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 15 $128 +$17 +14%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $180 +$88 +49%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $50 −$30 -60%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $50 +$10 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 +$64 +286%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $90 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 73¢ $40 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $33 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $80 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $110 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 99¢ $44 4h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $41 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 100¢ $132 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 6¢ $0 12h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 8¢ $1 12h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 9¢ $2 13h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 15h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 17¢ $3 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $56 16h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 16h
Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes BUY No 15¢ $10 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $20 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 8¢ $2 30h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 90¢ $40 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $1 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 35¢ $42 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $76 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 42h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 20¢ $5 42h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 13¢ $8 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $43 42h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,106.67 · official $2,108.75 (match) · 3210 history records