Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:00:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BF 0xbf99…782e sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$136 (-11%) realized −$73 · open −$63
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$10
14 days+$130
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$296
other 43% −$303
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +149.9% +126.1% 50% 50% -13.5%
≤30d 30 +61.1% +45.8% 30% 30% +5.8%
≤90d 34 +48.5% +34.3% 29% 29% +0.3%
all 34 +48.5% +34.3% 29% 29% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.3% 29% +0.3%
10% +21.5% 29% -9.3%
15% +9.7% 26% -18.0%
20% -1.0% 26% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +87% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$20 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$73
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 52
History coverage44d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 35¢ $62 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $50 +$13 +25%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $16 +$23 +140%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Jun 19 $10 +$106 +1035%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$66 +1290%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$18 +187%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$25 -35%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $26 +$140 +547%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $33 +$52 +158%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$24 -66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $34 −$33 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $23 −$22 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $21 +$56 +268%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$40 +197%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $22 −$21 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $24 −$3 -14%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $25 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $31 −$31 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) May 12 $18 +$20 +114%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $41 −$29 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 35¢ $63 53m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? SELL Yes 21¢ $63 59m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? AND Will Netherlands vs. BUY $14 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $36 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 37¢ $13 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 24¢ $26 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $16 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 11¢ $13 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY $10 6d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes $6 7d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 7d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $53 7d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $40 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes $8 7d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 7d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 27¢ $24 7d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY $10 7d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 8d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 8d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $5 8d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 34¢ $10 8d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY 34¢ $27 9d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 54¢ $23 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026 BUY $16 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.05 · official $36.05 (match) · 98 history records