Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 18 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$7
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 89¢ 88¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 59¢ 48¢ $14 $11 −$2 (-18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+45%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 49¢ 22¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-56%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 83¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 84¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 87¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 78¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 05 $12 +$3 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $5 +$1 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $20 +$5 +26%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $8 $0 -2%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 21 $14 +$1 +9%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 21 $11 +$4 +39%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 21 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 12 $5 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 05 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 05 $25 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 05 $9 +$1 +6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 05 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 28 $5 $0 +6%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 21 $11 +$1 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 10 $9 −$5 -60%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $20 +$2 +10%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit 19350 (LOW) in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026? Apr 02 $5 +$1 +12%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $30 +$12 +39%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 25 $16 +$2 +15%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 21 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 21 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 17 $11 +$4 +33%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Mar 14 $8 −$2 -28%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 10 $5 $0 +4%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 03 $4 +$1 +28%
Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 03 $8 $0 +5%
Will Solana dip to $40 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 +3%
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 19? Feb 27 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 19? Feb 27 $4 +$1 +41%
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Feb 19 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? Feb 19 $35 −$1 -3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 17 $33 −$1 -2%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 14 $1 +$2 +148%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 14 $6 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $6 −$4 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% +$10
crypto 15% +$5
world 14% −$2
economics 10% −$2
sports 7% −$4
finance 5% +$7
politics 4% +$8
tech 2% $0
culture 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $12 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $6 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 90¢ $11 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 87¢ $6 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $11 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $0 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 7d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $21 7d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $7 7d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $8 7d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $14 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 13d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 13d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 91¢ $46 13d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 92¢ $30 13d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 88¢ $10 13d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 92¢ $17 22d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 87¢ $17 22d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 22d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 30¢ $4 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.4% -15.3% 0% 0% -15.3%
≤30d 9 +12.2% +1.5% 67% 44% -0.1%
≤90d 31 +3.9% -6.0% 81% 26% -3.1%
all 49 +6.3% -3.8% 80% 27% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 27% -5.0%
10% -13.0% 18% -14.1%
15% -21.4% 8% -22.4%
20% -29.1% 2% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.39 · official $66.18 · 222 history records