Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:47:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BF 0xbf9c…3648 sports 1160 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$7,912 (+5%) realized +$6,668 · open −$942
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%581W / 569L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day64.2pace
Fees−$2,268est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$811
7 days−$436
14 days+$2,648
30 days+$2,509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$6,121
other 0% −$395
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 283 -0.0% -9.5% 48% 47% -10.7%
≤30d 1016 +0.2% -9.3% 51% 50% -7.8%
≤90d 1150 +0.8% -8.8% 51% 49% -5.5%
all 1150 +0.8% -8.8% 51% 49% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 49% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 48% -14.6%
15% -25.5% 39% -22.8%
20% -32.8% 31% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$101 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$4,169
Realized+$6,668
Unrealized−$942
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses581 / 569
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$2,268
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1150 / 1160
History coverage36d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day64.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Texas Rangers 44¢ 68¢ $299 $460 +$161 (+54%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Under 45¢ 74¢ $247 $410 +$164 (+66%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Boston Red Sox 69¢ 80¢ $300 $346 +$46 (+15%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Under 35¢ 48¢ $251 $341 +$90 (+36%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Under 65¢ 64¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Boston Red Sox 68¢ 66¢ $300 $291 −$9 (-3%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Texas Rangers 64¢ 84¢ $220 $289 +$69 (+31%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 75¢ 94¢ $200 $250 +$49 (+25%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 62¢ 74¢ $199 $237 +$38 (+19%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Over 56¢ 52¢ $249 $231 −$18 (-7%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Texas Rangers 38¢ 34¢ $200 $179 −$21 (-11%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Under 44¢ 26¢ $300 $176 −$124 (-41%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Over 52¢ 26¢ $252 $125 −$127 (-50%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Over 58¢ 36¢ $199 $122 −$77 (-39%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 39¢ 16¢ $279 $117 −$161 (-58%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Texas Rangers 41¢ 20¢ $200 $99 −$100 (-50%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Boston Red Sox 14¢ 4¢ $299 $89 −$210 (-70%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 56¢ 42¢ $71 $54 −$17 (-24%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 36¢ 6¢ $300 $53 −$246 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $262 −$75 -28%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 +$35 +70%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 15 $7 +$3 +36%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $50 +$14 +27%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 15 $221 −$221 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $206 +$93 +45%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Jun 15 $507 +$140 +28%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $508 −$114 -22%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$3 +180%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $222 −$54 -24%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $265 +$179 +67%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 14 $13 +$3 +24%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 14 $89 +$20 +23%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $505 −$180 -36%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) Jun 14 $219 −$219 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $175 −$163 -93%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $226 +$160 +71%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 +$11 +21%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $37 +$29 +79%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $50 +$18 +36%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $355 +$258 +73%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Jun 14 $50 +$17 +34%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 14 $66 +$16 +24%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $50 +$13 +26%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $23 +$61 +268%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $50 +$79 +158%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $300 +$143 +48%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $57 +$69 +123%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $20 +$23 +111%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 14 $29 +$11 +36%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $350 +$87 +25%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $218 −$218 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $311 +$488 +157%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 75¢ $138 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 65¢ $21 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 65¢ $50 37m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 34¢ $50 39m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $35 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $50 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 45¢ $69 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 69¢ $50 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 69¢ $50 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 68¢ $28 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 69¢ $174 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 13¢ $36 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 14¢ $50 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 14¢ $50 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 14¢ $12 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 14¢ $50 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 13¢ $50 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 13¢ $50 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 14¢ $9 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 42¢ $48 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 42¢ $59 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) BUY Texas Rangers 34¢ $31 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) BUY Texas Rangers 39¢ $50 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 53¢ $87 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) BUY Texas Rangers 39¢ $51 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 64¢ $70 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 66¢ $50 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 58¢ $105 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 42¢ $60 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,168.58 · official $4,168.58 (match) · 3500 history records