Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbf9d…a233 other 4 markets active 19h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-11%) realized −$6 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$5
crypto 35% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -34.8% -41.0% 0% 0% -41.0%
≤30d 1 -34.8% -41.0% 0% 0% -41.0%
≤90d 1 -34.8% -41.0% 0% 0% -41.0%
all 1 -34.8% -41.0% 0% 0% -41.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.0% 0% -41.0%
10% -46.7% 0% -46.7%
15% -51.8% 0% -51.8%
20% -56.5% 0% -56.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$7 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage6d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+29%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $32 $26 −$6 (-20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 −$7 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 18h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.88 · official $67.88 (match) · 14 history records