Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

BF 0xbf9d…01d7 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$2,728 (+108%) realized +$2,704 · open +$24

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +150% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +118% what you keep after slip

Net edge+118%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$503per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Fees−$60est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$513now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+126.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	+150.5%	+126.6%	100%	100%	+111.0%
≤90d	2	+150.5%	+126.6%	100%	100%	+111.0%
all	2	+150.5%	+126.6%	100%	100%	+111.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+126.6%	100%	+111.0%
10%	+104.9%	100%	+90.8%
15%	+85.1%	100%	+72.3%
20%	+67.0%	100%	+55.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +133% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +150% · $-wt +133% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,342 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$513

Realized+$2,704

Unrealized+$24

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$60

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage13d

Avg bet$503

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	Over	29¢	30¢	$288	$303	+$15 (+5%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5	Over	14¢	14¢	$140	$145	+$5 (+4%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5	Over	6¢	6¢	$60	$64	+$4 (+8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5	Jun 14	$683	+$1,395	+204%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	Jun 14	$1,332	+$1,289	+97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	29¢	$28	1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	6¢	$62	1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	14¢	$144	1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	29¢	$267	1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	90¢	$897	11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	92¢	$809	11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	92¢	$1	11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	92¢	$2	11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	92¢	$465	11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	92¢	$19	11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	92¢	$666	11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	71¢	$493	11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	92¢	$10	11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	92¢	$200	11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	92¢	$8	11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	92¢	$49	11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	92¢	$393	11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	28¢	$288	11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	46¢	$1,332	11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	28¢	$395	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $512.83 · official $511.83 (match) · 22 history records