Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfa0…1a65 crypto 1448 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 141d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,285 (-1%) realized −$2,292 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate91%1318W / 129L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$194
14 days+$137
30 days+$331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$3,706
weather 32% −$406
other 1% +$25
world 0% +$13
politics 0% $0
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +0.9% -8.7% 93% 5% -6.7%
≤30d 205 +1.2% -8.5% 96% 3% -8.4%
≤90d 728 -2.6% -11.9% 93% 2% -11.2%
all 1447 -2.2% -11.5% 91% 4% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 4% -10.4%
10% -20.0% 2% -19.0%
15% -27.7% 1% -26.8%
20% -34.8% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$91 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized−$2,292
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1318 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1447 / 1448
History coverage142d ⚠
Avg bet$288
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $232 $239 +$7 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $227 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $222 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $216 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $213 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $106 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $202 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $187 +$16 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $184 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $175 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $242 +$34 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $242 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $238 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $110 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $111 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $135 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $133 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $229 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $124 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $203 +$21 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $185 +$19 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $185 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $179 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $174 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $70 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10? Jun 10 $167 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $166 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $165 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $163 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? Jun 09 $149 +$11 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 8? Jun 09 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 8? Jun 09 $40 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $37 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $127 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $125 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 8? Jun 08 $117 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $116 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 7? Jun 08 $114 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$7 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $232 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $232 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $227 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $228 8h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $22 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $222 18h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $216 22h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $216 22h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $213 25h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $103 25h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 25h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 27h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 27h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $100 27h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $206 27h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $202 30h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $202 30h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 34h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 93¢ $80 34h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 34h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $183 46h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 47h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $175 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $276 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 86¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 87¢ $201 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $242 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.94 · official $238.94 (match) · 3500 history records