Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbfa4…6ba3 crypto 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$402 (+3%) realized +$402 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%14W / 57L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,094
7 days+$2,417
14 days+$2,259
30 days+$2,158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$608
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +11.8% +1.1% 40% 40% +26.9%
≤30d 23 -2.8% -12.0% 35% 35% +23.0%
≤90d 71 -37.6% -43.5% 20% 20% -8.0%
all 71 -37.6% -43.5% 20% 20% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.5% 20% -8.0%
10% -48.9% 20% -16.8%
15% -53.9% 18% -24.8%
20% -58.4% 17% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -39% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$540 vs −$143 · ×3.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$402
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses14 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage94d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Jun 24 $554 +$433 +78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Jun 24 $784 +$1,454 +185%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 24 $294 +$394 +134%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 24 $964 +$969 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $398 +$583 +146%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 23 $275 −$226 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 23 $651 +$278 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,063 −$932 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $945 −$858 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $311 +$1,386 +446%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 19 $1,176 −$1,109 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 19 $572 −$539 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 19 $59 −$56 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 19 $174 −$163 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? Jun 19 $166 −$135 -81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $568 +$1,141 +201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $66 −$31 -47%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 18 $173 −$163 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 17 $45 −$42 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 17 $123 −$116 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? May 29 $107 −$101 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 25? Apr 23 $169 −$159 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 24? Apr 23 $396 −$240 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $167 −$152 -91%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 4? Apr 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 4? Apr 22 $188 −$188 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 4? Apr 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 3? Apr 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 22 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 8? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5? Apr 22 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 12? Apr 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 4? Apr 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? Apr 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 3? Apr 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $54 −$44 -81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 20? Apr 17 $241 −$157 -65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $697 −$689 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 17? Apr 14 $456 −$15 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17? Apr 14 $382 −$71 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? Apr 13 $276 +$460 +167%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? Apr 13 $75 +$55 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 15? Apr 12 $17 −$14 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 16? Apr 12 $128 −$101 -79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 14? Apr 12 $564 −$522 -92%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 11 $396 −$140 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 16? Apr 11 $276 −$131 -47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 11 $552 −$192 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? SELL No 19¢ $402 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? SELL No 18¢ $128 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? SELL No 49¢ $290 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? SELL No 50¢ $292 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? SELL No 51¢ $596 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? SELL No 50¢ $395 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? SELL No 19¢ $178 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? SELL No 19¢ $238 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL No 49¢ $422 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL No 50¢ $143 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? SELL No 17¢ $297 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? SELL No 17¢ $306 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? SELL No 18¢ $206 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? SELL No 18¢ $275 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? SELL No 18¢ $371 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? SELL No 18¢ $191 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? SELL No 19¢ $202 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 11¢ $183 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 10¢ $172 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 11¢ $185 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 10¢ $175 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 12¢ $124 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 12¢ $129 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 5¢ $44 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 3¢ $3 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY No 11¢ $13 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY No 11¢ $83 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY No 11¢ $63 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY No 10¢ $49 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY No 10¢ $48 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 691 history records