Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BF 0xbfa8…cd1e sports 1429 markets active 12h ago coverage 106d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,207 (-8%) realized −$2,207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%623W / 882L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$246est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,244
7 days−$1,374
14 days−$1,068
30 days−$1,016
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$266
other 13% −$282
weather 2% −$52
politics 0% −$2
culture 0% +$11
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -77.0% -79.2% 12% 10% -65.6%
≤30d 279 -38.3% -44.2% 34% 29% -23.5%
≤90d 1310 -20.0% -27.6% 42% 39% -15.6%
all 1505 -19.7% -27.3% 41% 38% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 38% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 35% -23.0%
15% -40.6% 30% -30.5%
20% -46.4% 24% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$2,207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses623 / 882
Est. fees paid−$246
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1505 / 1429
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1505 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 19¢ 42¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+118%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+83%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 47¢ 42¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 34¢ 36¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 60¢ 14¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 489 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Suns Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 7AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Jun 18 $5 +$17 +344%
LoL: Team WE vs Ultra Prime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Barça eSports vs GIANTX PRIDE (BO3) - LES Kick-off Group B Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 3AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Timberwolves Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$22 -212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Clippers vs. Kings Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Warriors Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Hornets vs. Bulls Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Spurs Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - September 12, 9AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs DRX (BO3) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 18 $20 −$59 -295%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming - Game 1 Winn Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 12, 1AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Ground Zero Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Suns vs. Warriors Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs DRX Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Wizards vs. Kings Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 10AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Kings vs. Rockets Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 7PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - LCP Regular Seaso Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Carter Bryant win the 2026 NBA dunk contest? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Hornets vs. Grizzlies Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 80¢ $20 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 43¢ $10 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 72¢ $10 12h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 34h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 64¢ $10 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 55¢ $9 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 58¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 69¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 55¢ $2 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Top Esports 46¢ $5 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $20 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 76¢ $20 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 25¢ $3 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 43¢ $5 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $24 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 83¢ $20 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 77¢ $101 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 71¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 71¢ $21 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $20 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 94¢ $100 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 72¢ $10 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 72¢ $10 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 28¢ $17 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $24 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.12 · official $175.13 (match) · 3500 history records