Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfa9…6a4f crypto 437 markets active 10h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate89%389W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$3
14 days+$7
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$8
weather 40% +$9
sports 2% −$4
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +3.0% -6.8% 80% 23% -8.1%
≤30d 437 -1.6% -11.0% 89% 9% -9.9%
≤90d 437 -1.6% -11.0% 89% 9% -9.9%
all 437 -1.6% -11.0% 89% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 9% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 4% -18.5%
15% -27.3% 2% -26.4%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses389 / 48
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)437 / 437
History coverage27d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 437 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$4 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +38%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 65¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 92¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 92¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 91¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 80¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 975 history records