Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:44:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfaa…43e2 other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$683 (-7%) realized −$528 · open −$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%34W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$3,670now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$284
7 days+$116
14 days−$130
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$1,279
sports 22% +$885
tech 6% −$209
world 5% −$161
finance 2% +$76
crypto 1% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -0.0% -9.6% 34% 32% -6.1%
≤30d 64 -26.6% -33.6% 27% 25% -12.7%
≤90d 77 -12.0% -20.3% 35% 31% -12.8%
all 91 -13.3% -21.6% 37% 34% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 34% -17.6%
10% -29.1% 33% -25.5%
15% -35.9% 31% -32.7%
20% -42.2% 22% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$51 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$3,670
Realized−$528
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses34 / 57
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions38
Markets (closed)91 / 129
History coverage113d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 89¢ $1,000 $1,021 +$21 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $200 $165 −$35 (-18%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $50 $93 +$43 (+85%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 54¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $200 $78 −$122 (-61%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $102 −$29 -29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $101 +$1 +1%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 +$282 +550%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$60 +60%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 +$166 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$187 +365%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $103 +$806 +785%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$31 +307%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $503 −$503 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$124 +41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Ipswich Town FC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Libertad vs. Independiente del Valle end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. CA Boca Juniors end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Yokohama FC vs. Vanraure Hachinohe FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 26¢ $73 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 71¢ $102 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 82¢ $10 29h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $1,004 29h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,670.31 · official $3,670.35 (match) · 233 history records