Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:03:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfab…7035 politics 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 26% −$2
politics 25% $0
other 24% −$1
sports 9% $0
culture 7% $0
crypto 6% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 36% 9% -10.2%
≤90d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 36% 9% -10.2%
all 46 -1.1% -10.5% 30% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 2% -9.9%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage280d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $27 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $28 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $28 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $2 $0 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $3 $0 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $27 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $27 −$3 -11%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $32 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Nov 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 24 $2 −$1 -36%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 06 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 05 $1 $0 +2%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 27 $26 $0 -1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $20 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 21 $4 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 14 $2 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $30 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $27 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 90¢ $27 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $19 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $30 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $19 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $20 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $8 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $28 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $15 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $13 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $28 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $27 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $17 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $16 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $32 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $10 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $17 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 167 history records