Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BF 0xbfab…4aa9 sports 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$100 (+24%) realized +$102 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day47.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$56
other 7% +$24
crypto 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.3% -8.3% 60% 60% +16.3%
≤30d 20 +1.3% -8.3% 60% 60% +16.3%
≤90d 20 +1.3% -8.3% 60% 60% +16.3%
all 20 +1.3% -8.3% 60% 60% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 60% +16.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 50% +5.1%
15% -25.1% 50% -5.0%
20% -32.4% 35% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)20 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day47.5
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Over 62¢ 61¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Over 35¢ 32¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Over 50¢ 52¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Over 29¢ 29¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Over $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $13 −$13 -95%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $38 +$8 +20%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $32 +$20 +61%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $19 +$3 +13%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $14 +$15 +107%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $3 −$2 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $42 +$37 +88%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 +$3 +42%
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$21 +158%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 +$7 +45%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $17 +$17 +101%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +55%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$17 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 1m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $1 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over $0 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $13 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 62¢ $13 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $46 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 90¢ $28 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $3 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $8 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $6 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 3h
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 3h
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 87¢ $19 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $15 11h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $15 13h
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $17 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $4 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $29 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 21¢ $3 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $14 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $79 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $16 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $11 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.99 · official $98.00 (match) · 52 history records