Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbfac…490f crypto 1128 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 175d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$849 (+1%) realized +$840 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate65%808W / 439L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,173
7 days−$1,281
14 days−$1,297
30 days−$1,303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$894
crypto 44% −$557
world 3% −$63
politics 3% +$120
sports 1% −$113
culture 0% +$5
tech 0% −$58
finance 0% +$6
economics 0% +$7
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 -84.6% -86.1% 10% 7% -53.7%
≤30d 189 -75.5% -77.9% 16% 10% -40.2%
≤90d 378 -40.2% -45.9% 42% 19% -14.6%
all 1247 -12.7% -21.0% 65% 30% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 30% -10.2%
10% -28.5% 18% -18.8%
15% -35.5% 10% -26.6%
20% -41.8% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$21 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$840
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses808 / 439
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1247 / 1128
History coverage176d ⚠
Avg bet$110
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 61¢ 88¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+45%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 66¢ 66¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 253 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Georgia vs. Auburn Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
White Sox vs. Rays Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2025-10-10? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Mariners vs. Tigers Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Costa Rica win on 2025-10-09? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Jiangxi Open, Qualification: Xinyu Gao vs Aliona Falei Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand P Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CF América win on 2025-10-24? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Rangers vs. Mariners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Jiangxi Open: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Lilli Tagger Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Pennsylvania events on December Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Tech Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Greece win on 2025-10-09? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Senators vs. Lightning Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "Biden" on Jimmy Kimmel Live? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2025-10-10? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Juárez win on 2025-10-24? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Giants vs. Pirates Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during Pennsylvania events on December Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Erste Bank Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during C Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Pirates vs. Rockies Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Air Force vs. UNLV Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Maryland Terrapins Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Islanders vs. Penguins Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tucker Carlson say "Trump" 10+ times at AmericaFest events on Dec Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Missouri State vs. New Mexico State Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bucks vs. Heat Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Sharks vs. Devils Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Louisiana vs. James Madison Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Stars vs. Avalanche Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Jiangxi Open: Alycia Parks vs Lin Zhu Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2025-10-10? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh vs. Florida State Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Kings vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times at Rocky Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Jiangxi Open: Hanyu Guo vs Alina Korneeva Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Orioles vs. Cubs Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will there be a safety car during the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $8 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 76¢ $6 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $47 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $20 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 7h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 85¢ $34 10h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 79¢ $10 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $20 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $127 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $70 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 71¢ $10 24h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL No 23¢ $1 24h
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 25h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $11 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $54 26h
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 28h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $2 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 31h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 52¢ $5 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.38 · official $119.38 (match) · 3500 history records