Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:13:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BF 0xbfad…af3f crypto 647 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$883 (-1%) realized −$883 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%332W / 315L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$3,633
sports 0% +$195
other 0% −$167
politics 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -44.9% -50.2% 25% 25% -59.6%
≤30d 29 -32.6% -39.0% 34% 34% -48.8%
≤90d 637 -5.1% -14.1% 51% 48% -11.9%
all 647 -5.1% -14.1% 51% 48% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 48% -11.9%
10% -22.3% 45% -20.3%
15% -29.8% 39% -28.0%
20% -36.7% 34% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$192 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$883
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses332 / 315
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)647 / 647
History coverage91d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 647 Trades
no open positions (80 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$28 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $235 −$225 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $160 +$171 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $76 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 30 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 29 $19 +$25 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 29 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 29 $31 +$53 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 29 $26 +$23 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 29 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 29 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 29 $21 +$20 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 29 $31 +$21 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 29 $15 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 29 $27 +$14 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 22 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 19 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 19 $159 +$88 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 19 $93 +$68 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 19 $67 +$77 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 19 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 19 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 19 $185 +$119 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 19 $69 −$66 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 19 $110 +$145 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 19 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 19 $288 −$275 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 19 $183 −$175 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 19 $393 −$384 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 19 $262 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 19 $181 −$175 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 19 $182 +$269 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 19 $440 +$425 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $422 +$478 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $331 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1983 history records