Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:06:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BF 0xbfaf…736b crypto 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+3%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate79%77W / 21L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -7.8% -16.6% 73% 33% -15.0%
≤30d 15 -7.8% -16.6% 73% 33% -15.0%
≤90d 37 -3.6% -12.8% 70% 43% -6.8%
all 98 +0.5% -9.0% 79% 42% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 42% -7.1%
10% -17.7% 28% -16.0%
15% -25.7% 13% -24.1%
20% -33.0% 5% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses77 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage124d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 05 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 05 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 04 $17 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 04 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 04 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 04 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 04 $4 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 04 $7 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 04 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 04 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 04 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 04 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 19 $18 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 01 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 01 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 01 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 01 $14 −$12 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 01 $12 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Mar 01 $17 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 01 $14 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Mar 01 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Feb 28 $13 +$6 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 28 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 28 $32 −$13 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 28 $19 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 261 history records