Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfb2…7902 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$5
other 23% −$2
politics 8% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 4% −$1
tech 2% −$3
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 5 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 5 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -10.9%
all 46 -7.6% -16.4% 43% 4% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 4% -10.9%
10% -24.4% 2% -19.5%
15% -31.7% 0% -27.3%
20% -38.4% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage466d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $152 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $80 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $17 −$2 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $52 −$3 -5%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $9 $0 +4%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 25 $7 −$2 -27%
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 53% and 55% of the vote in the South Ko Jun 02 $4 $0 +4%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 31 $5 +$1 +32%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 22 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors May 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $3 $0 +2%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? May 07 $1 $0 +21%
Will X buy TikTok? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 18–25? Apr 24 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 23 $3 $0 -14%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Apr 23 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Apr 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 30 $12 $0 +3%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $1 $0 -11%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Mar 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $13 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 23 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 22 $13 $0 +4%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Mar 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $6 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by March 31? Mar 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $10 $0 -0%
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 11 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $10 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $7 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $32 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $48 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $15 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $39 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $51 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $50 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 83¢ $52 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $46 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $38 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $7 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $53 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.13 · official $39.16 (match) · 168 history records