Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BF 0xbfb3…4b43 world 153 markets active 1d ago coverage 200d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 199d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24,349 (+3%) realized +$20,955 · open +$3,394
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate74%104W / 36L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$4,974per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$73,895now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 200d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$3,377
finance 34% +$25,199
tech 16% −$2,452
other 7% +$1,282
politics 3% +$912
crypto 0% +$17,133
economics 0% +$70
sports 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 0% -5.7%
≤30d 14 -21.0% -28.6% 64% 21% -30.0%
≤90d 30 -18.1% -25.9% 57% 23% +0.3%
all 140 +4.8% -5.2% 74% 20% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 20% -3.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 7% -12.5%
15% -22.6% 6% -21.0%
20% -30.2% 6% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$4,960) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$643 vs −$707 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$73,895
Realized+$20,955
Unrealized+$3,394
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses104 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions13
Markets (closed)140 / 153
History coverage200d ⚠
Avg bet$4,974
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 94¢ 100¢ $36,508 $38,721 +$2,213 (+6%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $9,300 $9,450 +$150 (+2%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 86¢ $8,400 $8,650 +$250 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 75¢ 84¢ $5,100 $5,734 +$634 (+12%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 91¢ 90¢ $4,557 $4,533 −$25 (-1%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $3,189 $3,171 −$19 (-1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $1,520 $1,530 +$10 (+1%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No 72¢ 78¢ $696 $749 +$53 (+8%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $544 $607 +$64 (+12%)
Will Trump nationalize elections? No 80¢ 87¢ $356 $385 +$29 (+8%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 64¢ $194 $216 +$22 (+11%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 67¢ 72¢ $134 $145 +$11 (+8%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? Jun 28 $833 +$27 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $133 +$10 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $3,223 +$123 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 23 $998 +$59 +6%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $84 −$84 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $81 +$119 +146%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $539 +$86 +16%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $6,400 −$6,400 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $916 +$84 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $8,900 +$1,100 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? May 28 $30 +$3 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 26 $19,640 +$340 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 25 $36,575 +$18,798 +51%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $3,265 −$353 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 21 $3,899 −$3,822 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 08 $477 −$476 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 08 $436 −$436 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $2,826 +$138 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 21 $5,554 −$2,130 -38%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 21 $2,750 −$2,750 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 20 $4,586 +$7,836 +171%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Apr 18 $5,189 −$60 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 14 $1,554 +$18 +1%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Apr 13 $850 −$250 -29%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 08 $109 +$16 +14%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $2,498 +$88 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 26 $59,790 +$4,159 +7%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Mar 22 $440 +$45 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Mar 14 $7,463 +$750 +10%
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? Mar 10 $13 $0 -3%
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? Mar 10 $2,657 +$69 +3%
Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? Mar 10 $4 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Mar 09 $14,391 +$55 +0%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $5,074 −$819 -16%
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $2,032 +$73 +4%
Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026? Mar 09 $1 $0 +20%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Mar 09 $19,680 +$721 +4%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Mar 09 $3,456 +$168 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 09 $2,670 +$90 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Mar 09 $4,650 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $4,960 +$40 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $2,460 +$540 +22%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 08 $3,760 +$240 +6%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $2,613 +$70 +3%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 05 $4,750 +$250 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $787 26h
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $6 45h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $6 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $3 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $63 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $16 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $9 3d
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 67¢ $134 3d
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $6 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $26 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $4 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $12 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $43 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $228 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $16 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $323 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $103 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $380 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 93¢ $133 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 76¢ $243 3d
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $692 3d
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $25 4d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY No 91¢ $4,550 5d
Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,015 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73,894.99 · official $73,894.99 (match) · 3500 history records