Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:43:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BF 0xbfb3…e08f world 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%24W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$14
sports 23% −$11
politics 14% +$2
other 13% +$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 -3.3% -12.5% 44% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 62 -0.8% -10.3% 39% 0% -9.9%
all 63 -2.4% -11.7% 38% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -10.4%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses24 / 39
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage486d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $157 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $31 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $62 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $62 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $70 −$2 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $14 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $35 −$7 -19%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $17 −$6 -36%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $51 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $79 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $26 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 19 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $44 −$2 -5%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $48 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $97 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $18 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $147 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $86 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $110 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $4 $0 -3%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $48 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $25 $0 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $47 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $1 $0 -4%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $31 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $19 4h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $12 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $31 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $31 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $18 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $13 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $31 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $9 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $22 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 268 history records